Key words :
future energies,
peak oil
,future energy
,cera
,crude oil
,energy watch group
,production
Has Peak Oil Been Reached? No!
5 Nov, 2007 12:51 pm
, whose position is that peak oil has not been reached. As well, we speak to Mr Jorg Schindler, the main author and Managing Director of Ludwig-B?lkow-Systemtechnik GmbH, about the report. )
The Energy Watch Group released a report last week, stating that peak oil was reached in 2006. Scitizen sought the professional view of Dr Peter Jackson, Director of the CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates), whose position is that peak oil has not been reached. As well, we speak to Mr Jorg Schindler, the main author and Managing Director of Ludwig-B?lkow-Systemtechnik GmbH, about the report.
Read the Energy Watch Group report and executive summary hereOne thing that strikes me is that the report does not present the detail of the analysis. I would expect to see a tabulation of outlooks for different countries including estimates of the contribution to productive capacity from new developments and exploration. In the copy I have these critical data are missing.
Scitizen: Energy Watch Group has released a report that stated peak oil was reached in 2006; do you have a comment for Scitizen on the report?
Dr Peter Jackson: The EWG report shows that crude plus condensate production reached a plateau in 2005/2006 based on EIA data. This analysis does not consider the total liquids hydrocarbon inventory which includes crude oil, condensate, NGL's, extra heavy oils and biofuels. This does not give a reliable picture of overall liquids supply. It is important to think about the entire inventory of contributing sources of hydrocarbons. Above ground factors, especially geopolitical factors, have had a major influence on production in many countries in the past 2 years, crude plus condensate production alone may have reached a temporary plateau, but this situation will change. This does not mean that productive capacity has reached an irreversible plateau. The EWG report does not document the results of a systematic analysis of current and future productive capacity, so it is not possible to comment in detail.
S: What is your opinion on the current situation of peak oil?
PJ: CERA does not believe in an imminent peak in global liquids supply. The most recent revision of our detailed outlook shows productive capacity growing substantially through 2017.
S: In your interview with us earlier this year, you mentioned that the oil production would reach a plateau instead of a peak. Has your opinion changed since this interview? Why or why not?
PJ: Our opinion has not changed. There is no evidence to suggest that productive capacity has stalled or is about to fall. On the contrary CERA believes that productive capacity will rise strongly over the next few years. Considering the dynamics of supply and demand, along with above and below ground factors, we continue to believe that supply will ultimately reach an inflection point and spend a number of years on an undulating plateau before declining fairly slowly. The concept of peak oil is not reliable.
Read the opposing view from Mr Jorg Schindler here
Dr Peter Jackson: The EWG report shows that crude plus condensate production reached a plateau in 2005/2006 based on EIA data. This analysis does not consider the total liquids hydrocarbon inventory which includes crude oil, condensate, NGL's, extra heavy oils and biofuels. This does not give a reliable picture of overall liquids supply. It is important to think about the entire inventory of contributing sources of hydrocarbons. Above ground factors, especially geopolitical factors, have had a major influence on production in many countries in the past 2 years, crude plus condensate production alone may have reached a temporary plateau, but this situation will change. This does not mean that productive capacity has reached an irreversible plateau. The EWG report does not document the results of a systematic analysis of current and future productive capacity, so it is not possible to comment in detail.
S: What is your opinion on the current situation of peak oil?
PJ: CERA does not believe in an imminent peak in global liquids supply. The most recent revision of our detailed outlook shows productive capacity growing substantially through 2017.
S: In your interview with us earlier this year, you mentioned that the oil production would reach a plateau instead of a peak. Has your opinion changed since this interview? Why or why not?
PJ: Our opinion has not changed. There is no evidence to suggest that productive capacity has stalled or is about to fall. On the contrary CERA believes that productive capacity will rise strongly over the next few years. Considering the dynamics of supply and demand, along with above and below ground factors, we continue to believe that supply will ultimately reach an inflection point and spend a number of years on an undulating plateau before declining fairly slowly. The concept of peak oil is not reliable.
Read the opposing view from Mr Jorg Schindler here
Interview by Audrey Wang
Key words :
future energies,
peak oil
,future energy
,cera
,crude oil
,energy watch group
,production
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The concept itself is reliable of course, otherwise it would mean that oil resources are infinite. The difficulty, due to the complexity of the problem, is to predict accurately *when* the peak will occur (or has it occurred recently?). The applicability of the concept is thus probably limited, I mean in term of accurate predictability as a physical law. But even if the peak oil (or a plateau) occurs in 2017 instead of now, obviously it will be followed by a decrease of oil production. I think this is the force of the peak oil concept, to just remind us that *there will be a decrease* with significant impacts on our societies.